Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008574 0.009675 0.010866 0.012249 0.013812 0.015525 0.017545
2025-12-21 0.006584 0.008043 0.009751 0.011899 0.014533 0.017659 0.021661
2025-12-28 0.005785 0.007465 0.009542 0.012303 0.015884 0.020381 0.026474
2026-01-04 0.005159 0.006961 0.009292 0.012533 0.016935 0.022723 0.030943
2026-01-11 0.004704 0.006597 0.009142 0.012823 0.018027 0.025151 0.035691
2026-01-18 0.004214 0.006117 0.008765 0.012730 0.018541 0.026785 0.039438
2026-01-25 0.003834 0.005742 0.008481 0.012717 0.019132 0.028535 0.043463
2026-02-01 0.003460 0.005333 0.008102 0.012510 0.019391 0.029788 0.046816
2026-02-08 0.003209 0.005082 0.007927 0.012584 0.020063 0.031690 0.051301
2026-02-15 0.002950 0.004792 0.007661 0.012481 0.020432 0.033129 0.055148
2026-02-22 0.002800 0.004660 0.007630 0.012744 0.021399 0.035583 0.060843
2026-03-01 0.002536 0.004317 0.007225 0.012350 0.021236 0.036152 0.063385
2026-03-08 0.002332 0.004061 0.006950 0.012161 0.021417 0.037335 0.067138
2026-03-15 0.002122 0.003777 0.006603 0.011817 0.021298 0.037989 0.070010
2026-03-22 0.002055 0.003738 0.006676 0.012218 0.022532 0.041118 0.077651
2026-03-29 0.001967 0.003652 0.006656 0.012446 0.023463 0.043765 0.084611
2026-04-05 0.001894 0.003588 0.006669 0.012734 0.024524 0.046729 0.092426
2026-04-12 0.001775 0.003427 0.006491 0.012642 0.024847 0.048313 0.097661
2026-04-19 0.001677 0.003298 0.006361 0.012629 0.025319 0.050215 0.103685
2026-04-26 0.001563 0.003129 0.006143 0.012424 0.025386 0.051316 0.108147
2026-05-03 0.001491 0.003038 0.006066 0.012497 0.026022 0.053604 0.115285
2026-05-10 0.001405 0.002911 0.005911 0.012394 0.026283 0.055138 0.120932
2026-05-17 0.001363 0.002872 0.005930 0.012656 0.027331 0.058392 0.130612